Ballot: Californians take totally different views of Israel-Hamas conflict

Three months of conflict between Israel and Hamas have sharply cut up Californians, with stark divisions between the state’s older and youthful voters, a brand new statewide ballot finds.

Voters youthful than 30 are much more prone to sympathize with Palestinians greater than with Israelis, whereas these older than 65 aspect with Israel, in response to the brand new ballot by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Research, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Instances.

By 55%-18%, voters youthful than 30 say Israel ought to comply with a cease-fire even when that may imply Hamas stays a power in Gaza.

Amongst voters older than 65, opinion is nearly the reverse: By 52%-32%, these voters imagine Israel ought to hold preventing till Hamas is now not viable. Twenty-seven p.c of the youngest voters and 16% of these over 65 had no opinion, the ballot discovered.

The survey finds equally sharp divisions alongside ideological traces, with the state’s most liberal voters overwhelmingly saying Israel is utilizing an excessive amount of navy power within the conflict, whereas conservative voters say that the usage of power has been about proper or too little.

Jen Julian, a 26-year-old progressive voter who lives in Los Angeles, is amongst those that really feel the conflict has been too pricey. The demise toll amongst Palestinians — which well being authorities in Gaza say is greater than 23,000 — was “an excessive amount of of a human price,” she mentioned in an interview.

Israel launched its air strikes and a floor invasion of Gaza after Hamas militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing at the least 1,200 folks and taking greater than 240 hostages.

“I perceive Israel was attacked and felt it wanted to reply to that, however that is method an excessive amount of for method too lengthy,” she mentioned.

Joey Johnson, a 68-year-old conservative from Redding, took a special view.

“That is like Israel’s 9/11,” Johnson mentioned. “If America was attacked the way in which Israel was by terrorists, we additionally would wish to do every thing we might to cease it from ever occurring once more. However in fact it’s tragic that harmless individuals are dying in Gaza.”

Two-state answer nonetheless dominant

Whereas views are divided sharply concerning the present conflict, the ballot reveals larger settlement amongst California voters on the way forward for the battle.

Separate, impartial Israeli and Palestinian states dividing the land stays probably the most favored choice for all however probably the most conservative voters.

That so-called two-state answer has been official U.S. coverage for many years and at numerous factors previously, at the least nominally accepted as a aim by the Israeli authorities and the Palestinian Authority, which has restricted governing energy within the West Financial institution.

An impartial Palestinian state is opposed, nonetheless, by right-wing Israelis, who’ve sturdy sway within the present authorities, headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Meantime, Hamas and different radical Palestinian teams reject Israel’s continued existence.

Amongst California voters, the two-state answer is backed by a big majority of those that have an opinion — 47% choose two states, whereas 25% don’t have any opinion and the remaining divide amongst different choices.

Two states is what Rabbi Jonathan Klein hopes for.

Because the chief of Temple Beth El in Bakersfield and a self-described “lifelong liberal Zionist,” Klein, 55, mentioned he has stored a detailed watch on information out of Israel and Gaza.

“My group is fairly universally supportive of Israel’s efforts to fight what they see as an existential risk,” Klein mentioned.

“However I acknowledge that simply because Jews have a historic tie to the realm doesn’t imply that different folks don’t. Do I feel co-existence is feasible? I hope it’s, however I have no idea at this level.”

The ballot finds considerably much less help for an choice espoused by some on the left — a unified bi-national state. One in eight voters mentioned they wish to see a single state that may be neither Jewish nor Palestinian. Assist for that comes primarily from the left, with slightly below 1 in 5 of the state’s liberals backing it.

There’s little or no help for Hamas’ aim of an Arab state that may management all of the territory between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. Whereas that concept has been backed by demonstrators at some latest protests, simply 3% of the state’s voters help it. Assist rises to 7% amongst these below 30 and eight% of those that establish as strongly liberal.

“Israel is an illegitimate state,” mentioned Reza Nekumanesh, a 47-year-old Iranian American who lives in Fresno. “I don’t imagine meaning any specific group of individuals doesn’t have the proper to stay and exist there in peace and fairness and justice,” Nekumanesh mentioned. “However I don’t imagine any state needs to be based and centered upon an ethnic or spiritual id.”

On the different finish of the ideological spectrum, 11% of the state’s voters again a single Israeli state controlling all of the territory — the aim of the Israeli proper.

Netanyahu and his allies have sturdy backing inside Republican ranks, nonetheless, and help for Israeli management over all the area rises to 31% among the many state’s Republican voters and 43% of those that establish as strongly conservative.

Divided Sympathies

The ballot finds 30% of California voters saying they sympathize extra with Israelis than Palestinians within the present battle and the same share, 28%, sympathizing with either side equally.

Mordecai Miller, a 74-year-old resident of Redwood Metropolis, mentioned he felt ache for either side, however felt nearer to the plight of Israelis after Oct. 7.

“None of this conflict would have occurred if Hamas had not deliberately attacked Israel and desired to eradicate it,” mentioned Miller. “Israel has been pressured to retaliate.”

A barely smaller share, 24%, say they sympathize extra with the Palestinians.

That features Rami Sultan, a Palestinian American in Santa Clara who has household in Gaza.

The 41-year-old tech employee mentioned he was incensed by what he described as “genocide.”

“This isn’t a conflict on Hamas in any respect. This can be a clear conflict in opposition to the Palestinian folks,” mentioned Sultan.

Sympathies differ dramatically by age and beliefs.

Amongst voters youthful than 30, for instance, 44% say they sympathize extra with the Palestinians, whereas simply 14% say they sympathize extra with the Israelis and 21% with each equally.

Amongst these 65 and older, 46% sympathize extra with the Israelis, 13% with the Palestinians and 32% with each equally.

Biden caught in center

Divided opinion over the conflict has left President Biden susceptible to criticism from each left and proper.

General, 55% of the state’s voters disapprove of Biden’s response, whereas 33% approve.

However 64% of voters who describe themselves as strongly liberal disapprove of Biden’s response to the battle, as do 67% of those that establish as strongly conservative.

The sharp division by age is a significant factor, with 69% of voters youthful than 30 and 65% of these 30-39 disapproving of how Biden has dealt with the battle.

Melissa Brown, a 40-year-old conservative voter in San Diego, mentioned Biden “was very sturdy on Israel at first, as he ought to have been.”

“He nonetheless is powerful, however you may see him caving to the stress from the left, sending messages that Israel must tone down its self-defense,” she mentioned. “I disagree.”

Concern over antisemitism, Islamophobia

Regardless of their variations over the conflict and the underlying Israeli-Palestinian battle, giant majorities of California voters throughout social gathering traces share a priority a couple of rise in anti-Jewish or anti-Arab violence or hate incidents.

Requested about antisemitic incidents, 80% of California voters say they’re involved about them, 12% weren’t involved. Equally, 75% mentioned they had been involved about anti-Arab or anti-Muslim incidents, in contrast with 17% who weren’t involved.

The ballot discovered little or no division alongside ideological or social gathering traces in concern about antisemitism, however a noticeable partisan distinction over anti-Muslim incidents.

Amongst Democrats, the share who expressed concern about antisemitism and anti-Muslim hate had been about equal. Amongst Republicans, 81% mentioned they had been involved about antisemitism, whereas 13% weren’t. However 60% had been involved about anti-Muslim hate, in comparison with 31% who weren’t.

The Berkeley IGS ballot surveyed 8,199 California registered voters. It was performed on-line in English and Spanish on Jan. 4-8.

The outcomes had been weighted to match census and voter registration benchmarks, so estimates of the margin of error could also be imprecise; nonetheless, the outcomes have an estimated margin of error of 1.5 proportion factors in both course.