Victorian election 2022 dwell outcomes: counting begins as voters select between Daniel Andrews and Matthew Man – newest updates | Australia information

Ben Raue

Turning my thoughts to the teal challenges within the inside south-east Melbourne seats, there’s a combined image.

We don’t have a lot of a choice rely in Mornington, however impartial Kate Lardner is clearly in second place on main votes with the Liberal candidate polling properly underneath 40%, so I believe Lardner doubtlessly has the most effective shot at successful for an city impartial working south of the river.

In Kew, impartial Sophie Torney is at the moment on 19.3% primarily based on 4 cubicles, which places her in third place. She’s additionally dropping on the choice rely in opposition to the Liberal candidate, however that received’t matter except she will overtake the Labor candidate.

Unbiased Melissa Lowe can be in third place in Hawthorn, however is a bit nearer to the sitting Labor MP. If she will handle to overhaul Labor (both on minor candidate preferences or with shifting tendencies as counting continues), she’s in a robust place to win – former Liberal MP John Pesutto is polling simply 38.6%, which is probably not sufficient to win if Labor preferences circulate to the impartial.

Nomi Kaltmann isn’t doing so properly in Caulfield, coming fourth, however there’s a substantial swing in opposition to sitting Liberal MP David Southwick which suggests Labor might acquire that seat.

Independents in Brighton and Sandirngham will not be aggressive.

In unhealthy information for the Labor celebration, each ABC and Sky information are saying Nepean will fall to the Liberals.

With 15.1% counted, Sam Groth, a former tennis skilled, is anticipated to be elected.

It’s a key seat, but it surely received’t come as a shock – each events anticipated Labor would lose it.

Requested by 9’s panel if this implies he will probably be retiring from his place as a commentator for the community on the Australian Open in January, Groth demurred:

I’m not going to name it simply but. However, sure, there’s a excessive likelihood I might be on the Australian Open as a spectator in a few months’ time.

Ben Raue

Early leads to some Labor-Greens contests look good for Greens

We’re getting some early leads to among the Labor-Greens contests and all the story is beneficial to the Greens.

In most of those seats we’ve obtained outcomes for 2 or three small cubicles, however the booth-matching suggests substantial swings to the Greens.

In Albert Park, the primary three cubicles present an 11% swing to the Greens and three.5% away from Labor. A 12% swing away from the Liberals has allowed the Greens to climb into the highest two. On these figures, Liberal preferences make the race about even, so we’ll want to attend for choice flows later tonight, however this seat might very properly be in play.

In Northcote and Richmond, the Greens are main on the first vote, whereas Labor led on the first vote in 2018, and they’re going to profit from a extra beneficial Liberal choice circulate than in 2018, when Labor topped the first vote.

The primary two cubicles in Prahran recommend a big swing to the sitting Greens MP, Sam Hibbins.

If these tendencies proceed, the Greens can be on monitor for not less than 5 decrease home seats (up from three) with an actual shot at a sixth.

Benita Kolovos

Labor celebration devoted arrive at election occasion anticipating an extended night time

It’s form of wild to suppose that on the identical time 4 years in the past, the ABC election analyst Antony Inexperienced had already known as the election for Labor.

Right here at Daniel Andrews’ election-night occasion in his seat of Mulgrave, in Melbourne’s south-east, celebration devoted are solely beginning to arrive they usually’re anticipating they’ll be in for an extended night time.

Adeshola Ore

Liberal and Nationwide celebration devoted collect for election-night occasion in east Melbourne

Victorian Liberal and Nationwide celebration devoted and volunteers have begun trickling in to the Coalition’s election-night occasion at a bowls membership in east Melbourne.

There’s a way of quiet optimism on the occasion as volunteers mingle on the venue in Matthew Man’s voters of Bulleen.

The opposition MP Matthew Bach was among the many first parliamentarians to reach on the occasion and mentioned he was hopeful the Coalition might win the jap seats of Field Hill, Bayswater and Ringwood that fell to Labor within the 2018 landslide victory, however conceded they’d be tight races:

I believe we’ll win Field Hill. We’ve received an awesome candidate, Nicole Werner, and we would like and want extra unbelievable younger girls in our crew.

Bach additionally mentioned that no matter tonight’s end result, the Liberal celebration shouldn’t hand over on inner-city seats like Kew and Hawthorn underneath siege by teal candidates.

Each seats fall inside the federal voters of Kooyong, the place the teal candidate Monique Ryan defeated the previous treasurer Josh Frydenberg at Could’s federal election:

They’ll most likely by no means be the blue-ribbon seats that they had been, however are actually essential for us together with outer suburban seats, seats down the sandbelt and seats within the area. I believe that that may be accomplished, so we will’t hand over.

Polls predict a Labor victory, regardless of a fall in its main vote late within the marketing campaign. The Coalition would wish to win 18 seats tonight to kind authorities after struggling a crushing loss on the 2018 election. However Man immediately mentioned he was “assured” the Coalition might claw again and win sufficient seats to kind authorities, saying public polling had been “far and wide”.

Man just isn’t anticipated to reach on the occasion till a result’s clear.